Isophoric News · Thursday, October 22, 2026
UN environment agency says exceeding 1.5C is now unavoidable and sets out the cuts needed to return to it
The United Nations Environment Programme said in its Emissions Gap Report 2026, "The Point of Return," published Oct. 21, that warming could reach 2.8°C within this century if current policies continue and increase thereafter, 2.6°C if all national climate pledges are delivered and 2.1°C if those pledges and additional net-zero targets are all achieved. UNEP says returning warming to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance and peak warming limited to 1.7-1.8°C, would require cutting emissions 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels, and removing roughly 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the century, which it says faces socioeconomic and technological challenges. Current national pledges would reduce emissions by only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels, UNEP says. The agency says its outcomes are worse than last year's projections due to the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message on the report, "Overshoot is not surrender."
