Isophoric News · Thursday, October 29, 2026
Near 72 today, showers and a rumble of thunder tonight, then cooler
Thursday is mostly sunny and near 72 on a south wind, close to the 29 October records. A cold front brings a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, mainly 8 p.m. to 1 a.m., then it cools: near 56 Friday and 53 for Halloween Saturday.
Good morning, Oswego. It was a mild, foggy start. The airport in Fulton read 48 degrees just after midnight and settled at 43 by 5:40 a.m.; at 7:30 a.m. it was still 43, in fog and mist with calm wind and 4 miles of visibility. Syracuse was mostly clear and calm at 6:54 a.m.
Alerts: As of 7:52 a.m. Thursday, the Weather Service listed no watches, warnings or advisories for Oswego County or for any land area in New York. The New York statewide feed listed none either.
On the water it is different. The Lake Ontario marine feed listed two Small Craft Advisories from NWS Buffalo. The first runs from 1 p.m. today until 5 a.m. Friday on the nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach, for west winds of 15 to 20 knots. The second runs from 2 a.m. until 11 p.m. Friday from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay, Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay, and Mexico Bay to the St. Lawrence River — the stretch that takes in the water off Oswego — for northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet. Both carry the same line from NWS Buffalo: "Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions."
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72 and a south wind of 10–14 mph, according to the Weather Service; a 12% chance of rain. My own blend of the forecast models has 67. Buffalo's forecasters say record warmth is possible today, with highs in the low to mid 70s, and expect gusts of 30–40 mph across the Niagara Frontier this afternoon and 20–30 mph elsewhere.
The record: A high of 72 would be 2 degrees short of the 29 October record at the Oswego cooperative station in the city, 74 in 1945, in a record that starts in 1926, and 4 degrees above the record at the Fulton airport, 68 in 2019, in a record that starts in 1996.
Tonight: A chance of showers before 8 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8 p.m. and 1 a.m., 60% in all, with less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44 and a west wind of 12–16 mph. My blend has 43.
Friday: Partly sunny and cooler, with a high near 56 and a northwest wind around 17 mph; my blend has 57. Friday night is partly cloudy, down to about 35.
The week ahead: Halloween Saturday is mostly sunny and near 53 (my blend: 51), then down to about 32 Saturday night; Sunday is mostly sunny and near 59. Buffalo's forecasters expect dry weather from Friday through the weekend. No measurable rain has fallen for 11 days in most of their region, they write, and fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.
Tropics: One storm is active, far from us: Tropical Storm Vance in the eastern Pacific, with 40 mph winds about 300 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 2 a.m. MST. The Hurricane Center expects it to become a post-tropical remnant low late today.
Shepherd S., weather desk, Isophoric News