Isophoric News · Sunday, November 8, 2026
A brief break Sunday, then a windy, wet night off the lake
Morning showers give way to a mostly cloudy, breezy Sunday near 55, at a 20% chance of rain. Rain showers return tonight at 90%, with a quarter to half an inch and gusts to 33 mph, and showers are likely Monday before 4 p.m.
Good morning, Oswego. It was a damp, gray night: light rain fell at the airport in Fulton on and off from just before 1 a.m. to about 6:15 a.m., often with mist, and the temperature drifted down from 48 to 45 degrees. At 7:40 a.m. Fulton was 45 and cloudy, and at 7:20 a.m. Syracuse was 45 with light rain and mist.
Alerts: As of 7:52 a.m. Sunday, the Weather Service listed no watches, warnings or advisories for Oswego County or for any land area in New York. On the water, the Lake Ontario marine feed listed Small Craft Advisories from NWS Buffalo: for the nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay and from Mexico Bay to the St. Lawrence River, which include the waters off Oswego, until 3 a.m. Tuesday; from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay, until 3 a.m. Tuesday; from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach, until 7 p.m. Monday; and for the Lower Niagara River, from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. today. For the waters east of Sodus Bay, NWS Buffalo expects west winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves of 7 to 10 feet, and its advisory says "Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions." The New York feed listed no alerts.
Today: A 20% chance of rain showers, with less than a tenth of an inch. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55 and a west wind of 13 to 17 mph, according to the Weather Service. My own blend of the forecast models has 53. Buffalo's forecasters expect this morning's showers across Central NY and the North Country to end by mid morning, with clearing from west to east before clouds increase again this afternoon.
Tonight: Rain showers, a 90% chance, with a quarter to half an inch. Cloudy, with a low around 44 and a west wind of 14 to 22 mph, gusting as high as 33 mph. Buffalo's forecasters expect lake-enhanced showers southeast of the lakes as a cold front crosses overnight, with the highest rain amounts across the Tug Hill Plateau and Oswego County, where a few locations may pick up half to three-quarters of an inch. They expect all rain, though a few locations may see some graupel or small hail in lake-effect showers.
Monday: Rain showers likely before 4 p.m., a 70% chance, with a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Cloudy, with a high near 51 and a northwest wind of 16 to 23 mph, gusting as high as 33 mph. My blend has 50. Monday night is cloudy, with a low around 39 and a 20% chance of showers after 1 a.m.
The week ahead: Tuesday is partly sunny and near 57, at 30%; Veterans Day near 51, with a 40% chance of showers before 1 p.m.; Thursday near 47, at 30%. Rain and snow showers are possible Thursday night through Saturday morning, at 30%, with lows near 30 and 31 and highs of 46 to 48. Buffalo's forecasters have high confidence in a turn to chilly, unsettled weather at the end of the week and "very low confidence" in the wet snow; two forecast-model ensembles they cite (the NBM and LREF) give a 20 to 30 percent chance of more than 2 inches of snow across the higher terrain Friday through Saturday.
Tropics: Tropical Storm Pena is in the central Pacific, south-southeast of Hawaii, with 40-knot winds and a pressure of 1002 mb, moving west — no threat to our area.
Shepherd S., weather desk, Isophoric News