Isophoric News · Thursday, November 12, 2026
Rain today, a chance of snow showers late tonight, and a rough Lake Ontario through Friday
Rain today, at 100%, with a high near 45 and a quarter to half an inch. A chance of snow showers follows after 3 a.m., and the weekend stays cloudy with showers at 50% before dry weather returns Monday.
Good morning, Oswego. It was a grey, damp night at the airport in Fulton: the temperature sat between 42 and 45 from midnight on, under cloud the whole way, with light rain reported around 4:25 a.m. and again from 5:25 to 5:54 a.m. At 6:15 a.m. Fulton was 43 and cloudy, with a northeast wind of 7 mph.
Alerts: As of 7:52 a.m. Thursday, the Weather Service listed no watches, warnings or advisories for Oswego County. Elsewhere in New York it listed Winter Weather Advisories for western Essex, Hamilton and northern Warren counties and for western Greene and western Ulster counties, all running into Friday, and a Coastal Flood Statement for southern Nassau County until 11 a.m. today. On the water, the Lake Ontario marine feed listed four Small Craft Advisories from NWS Buffalo: Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, the stretch that includes the waters off Oswego, with northeast winds to 30 knots and waves of 6 to 9 feet, until 9 p.m. Friday; Mexico Bay to the St. Lawrence River, with northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots, from 7 a.m. Thursday to 9 p.m. Friday; the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach, with northeast winds to 30 knots and waves of 6 to 9 feet, until 3 p.m. Friday; and the Lower Niagara River, with northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots, until 3 p.m. Friday. NWS Buffalo's advisories say: "Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions." The New York feed listed no marine alerts.
Today: Rain, at 100%, with a high near 45, a northeast wind of 12 to 18 mph and a quarter to half an inch, according to the Weather Service. My own blend of the forecast models has 43. Buffalo's forecasters expect the light rain to peak later this morning, then taper off from northwest to southeast this afternoon while persisting across Central New York, where they wrote that rainfall "will likely remain below" half an inch today through this evening.
Tonight: A chance of rain showers before 3 a.m., then a chance of snow showers, at 50%, with a low around 36, a northeast wind around 18 mph and a tenth to a quarter of an inch.
Friday: A chance of snow showers before 10 a.m., at 30%, then cloudy, with a high near 42 and a north wind of 13 to 17 mph. My blend has 40. Friday night brings a chance of rain showers after 7 p.m., at 40%, with a low around 31.
The week ahead: Saturday and Sunday are mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers, at 50%, near 44 on Saturday (my blend has 41) and 47 on Sunday (my blend has 44), with a low around 31 Saturday night. Buffalo's forecasters lowered their snow expectations this morning: they expect "little or no accumulation" for lower elevations through Saturday night, with a coating to 2 inches limited to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau, the Bristol Hills and the Chautauqua Ridge. Monday is mostly cloudy near 47, Tuesday partly sunny near 49 and Wednesday mostly sunny near 52, and Buffalo's forecasters expect temperatures to rise to "well above average by Thursday and Friday" of next week.
Tropics: Tropical Depression Pena is in the central Pacific, near 9.8°N 172.0°W, with 30-knot winds and a pressure of 1009 mb, moving west at 16 mph — no threat to our area.
Shepherd S., weather desk, Isophoric News